तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत

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Dow Theory of Technical Analysis | Markets | Portfolio Management

In this article we will discuss about:- 1. Introduction to the Dow Theory of Technical Analysis 2. Basic Tenets of Dow Theory 3. Defects.

According to Charles Dow “the market is always considered as having three movements, all going at the same time. The first is the narrow movement from day-to-day. The second is तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत the short swing, running from two weeks to a month or more; and the third is the main movement, covering at least four years in its duration.”

The theory advocates that stock price behaviour is 90% psychological and 10% logical. It is the mood of the crowd which determines the way in which prices move and the move can be gauged by analyzing the price movement and volume of transactions.

Basic Tenets of Dow Theory:

The basic tenets of the Dow Theory (DT) are few and simple तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत and are:

1. The averages (index numbers) discount everything except ‘acts of god’ because they reflect the combined market activities of thousands of investors and traders.

2. The ‘market’ meaning the price of shares in तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत general, swings in trends which may be major or primary, secondary and minor. The primary trends are the extensive up or down movements which generally last by 20% or more. Movements in the direction of the primary trend are interrupted at intervals by secondary swings, in the opposite direction. Finally, the secondary trends are composed of minor trends or day-to-day fluctuations which are unimportant.

3. So long as each successive rally or price advance reaches a higher level than the one before it, and each secondary reaction, or price decline, stops at a higher level than the previous one, the primary trend is up. This is called a ‘bull market’.

Dow Theory’s Defects:

Those who are serious of applying the DT to interpret the market would do well to note its following defects:

1. First, the DT provides a signal of change in the trend, often too late. The end of a bull market is signaled only when the nearest intermediate bottom is penetrated by more than 3 per cent of the level and the subsequent rally fails to carry prices or the index above the earlier top.

This deprives the trader of the chance of selling at the best level and enables him to capture “at best about 65% or not much more than half of the total move”. But then, there is no other way of forecasting तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत that the change of trend has taken place at the top and it is better to be late than to be wrong.

2. The second defect is that the DT is not infallible. It depends on तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत interpretation and is subject to all the hazards of human interpretative ability. It is also criticized for leaving the analyst in doubt. But often, this is because of the reluctance or inability of the analyst to reconcile the DT’s message with his own ideas, derived from other sources, of what the market should do. Experience has shown that the DT is usually more nearly right and ‘the fault lies with the chartist and not the chart’.

Timeframes

Time frame denotes the amount of time it takes to complete each candle or bar and how much data it includes. For example, time frame H1 shows how much the bid price fluctuated within an hour. You can customize time frame for each chart in your trading platform.

In general, shorter times frames are believed to produce more signals, however a significant part of them tends to be false. In contrast, longer time frames may provide relatively less signals but they will be stronger and more significant for a particular trend.

Here is how the same price data look when you change periodicity:

Trend

Identifying the trend or the direction the market moves towards is one of the basic techniques in तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत the analysis. Occasionally it can be determined by simply looking at the chart. Other cases will require more profound analysis of the price data.

There are two major types of market trends:

• Uptrend - a series of escalating highs and lows;
• Downtrend - a series of lower highs and lower lows on chart.

A lack of any particular direction is occasionally referred as to sideways or horizontal trend.

To identify a trend you can simply draw a straight line in the direction of the price moves on a chart. "Trend lines" are available in almost every trading platform and may be considered one of the beginner-friendly technical analysis tools. Another option is a technical indicator that can determine and display a trend when added to a chart.

Support and resistance

Finding support and resistance levels allows to determine when and in which direction should a position be opened and the potential profit or loss may be. Support is the price level which an asset has difficulty going below and resistance denotes the level which the pair has a तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत difficulty rising above. These levels, however, do not always hold and a "breakout" or a “breakdown” occasionally occurs in one direction or another.

Support and resistance levels form a trading range - a horizontal corridor that contains price fluctuations during a period of time.

A price movement through the identified level of resistance is referred to as breakout. Its bearish counterpart is called breakdown - a price movement through the identified level of support. Both breakout and breakdown are usually followed by increase in volatility.

Chart patterns

Chart pattern is a distinct formation that predicts future price movement or creates a buy or sell signal. The theory behind it is basedon the assumption that certain patterns observed previously indicate where the price is currently headed.

• Head and Shoulders is considered to be one of the most reliable chart patterns which signifies that the trend is about to change. There are two types of this pattern - head and shoulders top that shows that upward movement may soon end and head and shoulders bottom, which means that downtrend is about to reverse.
• Doji – is a candle with a short body (which means that the candle opened and closed at almost the same price) and relatively long wicks on each side that show market volatility during a period of time. Doji usually signifies market indecision since neither bullish nor bearish trend prevails.
• Bullish hammer - a candle that usually occurs at a turn of the downtrend. This candle must have wicks twice as long as the body.
• Hanging man - bearish counterpart of bullish hammer that has a shorter body and long wicks and is usually found at the before the reversal of the uptrend.
  
• Another popular chart pattern is the triangle. There are three types of triangles: symmetrical, ascending and descending. The symmetrical triangle is a pattern where two trend lines that meet at one point and neither of them is flat. This pattern usually confirms the direction of the current trend. In an ascending triangle, the upper trendline is flat and the lower one is headed upwards. This pattern is considered to be bullish and may predict a breakout. Descending triangle has a flat lower line and the upper trendline is descending. Descending triangle is a bearish pattern signifying an upcoming breakdown.

तकनीकी विश्लेषण करने के लिए किस प्रकार तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत के डेटा आवश्यक हैं?

वास्तविक रूप से सभी तकनीकी विश्लेषण मूल्य और समय के डेटा इनपुट के साथ किया जाने के लिए डिज़ाइन किया गया है। कुछ तकनीकी विश्लेषण के लिए महत्वपूर्ण एक अन्य डेटा इनपुट ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम है। तकनीकी विश्लेषण मूल रूप से संभावित भविष्य की कीमत आंदोलनों को निर्धारित करने के लिए एक ट्रेडिंग बाजार में आपूर्ति और मांग का आकलन करने के लिए एक साधन प्रदान करता है। जबकि मौलिक विश्लेषण वास्तविक, या आंतरिक, निवेश के मूल्य का निर्धारण करने के उद्देश्य से है, तकनीकी विश्लेषण बाजार की दिशा और मूल्य आंदोलनों की ताकत को दर्शाने के लिए चार्ट पैटर्न और अन्य तकनीकी संकेतकों का उपयोग करता है। इन्वेस्टोपेडिया अकादमी इन नमूनों और संकेतकों को समझाते हुए तकनीकी विश्लेषण पर पूर्ण कोर्स प्रदान करता है।

क्या शेयर बाजार में लंबी अवधि के निवेश निर्णयों का मूल्यांकन करने के लिए मौलिक विश्लेषण, तकनीकी विश्लेषण या मात्रात्मक विश्लेषण का उपयोग करना बेहतर है? | इन्वेस्टोपैडिया

मूलभूत, तकनीकी और मात्रात्मक विश्लेषण के बीच तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत के अंतर को समझते हैं, और प्रत्येक माप कैसे निवेशकों को दीर्घकालिक निवेश का मूल्यांकन करने में सहायता तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत करता है।

मैं अपने स्टॉक पोर्टफोलियो में रिटर्न उत्पन्न करने के लिए मात्रात्मक विश्लेषण के साथ तकनीकी विश्लेषण और मौलिक विश्लेषण कैसे मर्ज कर सकता हूं? | इन्वेस्टोपैडिया

जानें कि कैसे मौलिक विश्लेषण अनुपात मात्रात्मक स्टॉक स्क्रीनिंग विधियों के साथ जोड़ा जा सकता है और एल्गोरिदम में तकनीकी संकेतक कैसे उपयोग किए जा सकते हैं।

एक योग्य सेवानिवृत्ति योजना में किस प्रकार के निवेश की अनुमति है, और किस प्रकार के निषिद्ध हैं?

आम तौर पर, योग्य योजनाओं के लिए स्वीकार्य निवेश में सार्वजनिक रूप से व्यापारिक प्रतिभूतियों, रियल एस्टेट, म्यूचुअल फंड और मनी मार्केट फंड शामिल हैं कुछ योजनाएं विकल्पों के निवेश की अनुमति भी देती हैं सुनिश्चित करने के लिए, हमेशा योजना दस्तावेज का संदर्भ लें जो योजना के तहत निवेश के विकल्प और किसी भी प्रतिबंध का वर्णन प्रदान करेगा।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण

कीमत में परिवर्तन की भविष्यवाणी करते हुए, असेट में उचित ढंग से ट्रेड तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत कर पाने की योग्यता ही ट्रेडिंग में सफल होना है। ट्रेडिंग में तकनीकी विश्लेषण भरोसेमंद साधन का एक संग्रह है जो आपको भाव की गतिविधि की भविष्यवाणी करने में सक्षम बनाता है।

ऑनलाइन तकनीकी विश्लेषण करना सीखकर, आप बाजार के ट्रेंड के बारे में सही निष्कर्ष निकालने और इसके ज़रिए पैसा अर्जित करने में तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांत सक्षम होंगे। ऐसा करने के लिए, आपको मूलभूत तकनीकी विश्लेषण के साधन और उनका उपयोग के तरीके सीखना चाहिए।

आधिकारिक Olymp Trade ब्लॉग के विशेष खंड में, आपको ट्रेडिंग में तकनीकी विश्लेषण के सिद्धांत और कार्य-प्रणाली पर लेखों की सूची मिलेगी। निम्न मुख्य विषय दिए गए हैं जिन्हें आपको सफल ट्रेडिंग के लिए सीखने की आवश्यकता है:

तकनीकी विश्लेषण в английский

The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation.

तकनीकी विश्लेषण उपकरण इसे स्पष्ट करने की कोशिश करते हैं, लेकिन उन्हें विभिन्न निवेशकों द्वारा विभिन्न तरीके से विश्लेषित किया जा सकता है।

Technical analysis tools attempt to clarify this but they can be interpreted differently by different investors.

कुछ तकनीकी समाधान भी हैं परन्तु मुझे नहीं लगता कि ये वैसे मुद्दे हैं जिनका समाधान तकनीकी विश्लेषण के जरिए किया जा सकता है।

There are virtuous technical solutions but I don't see these are the issues that can be resolved through technical analysis.